Waiting on the sidelines

Since I last wrote the market has come down a bit.

The Nifty is at 5292 (noon 31/8).

It needs to come down to 5075 for me to make a nice sum of 80k rupees. I have time till 30 Sept.

Incidents lined up :

- Bernankes speech at Jack Hole. Am sure mkts will get disappointed given the huge expectations built up.
 - The Europe circus. I can see some rumblings upto 12 Sep when the German courts vote on ESM.

My strategy is simple :

Wait till 12 Sep. Uncertainty will lead to Risk off and selling at Indian bourses. Should get 5075 by then. Have already waited since 5460.

I have always traded the Indian Nifty as a hobby. Since I had a job I was never under pressure to deliver.

But now I hv lost my job and this will be one of the means to eke out a living. What has my track record been like :

- Started in 2007. Made INR 3.2 L (1 L =100,00)
 with the first trade. a naked call option on RNRL
- Subsequently have made small gains and major losses every year.
- Last year had a plus of 1.2 L trading just Nifty.
- This year am - 0.6 L.
- My current position is 300 short Nifty September series @ weighted avg of 5302. This is contrary to market wisdom as there is a flood of liquidity in the market and pundits are saying that the Nifty could go past 5500. My logic is as follows :
     - Indian economy is in doldrums.
    - India can grow only if interest rates get lowered, growth picks up, inflation comes down and oil comes down. Interest rates are not going to come down in the near future (thnks to RBI), growth GDP numbers expected this month later < 5%, inflation is sticky especially with poor monsoons and oil is also a spoiler especially with Iran on the brink of war.
  - The latest : The CAG report on Coal sector allocations. This will weigh on investor sentiments and add to public governance concerns.

- Internationally I think the markets (Dow, FTSE) have run ahead. It will take one tough statement from Merkel or the Luxembourg fellow for the house of cards to come crashing down.

- Indian markets open on 21st now. I have the whole of August and till 27 Sep to reach a target of around 5075 on the Nifty (that will give me a return of around 50k on the Nifty). With some luck I may get more (There is a black swan of a downgrading of Indian soveriegn which will cause mayhem).

Lets see ......