A new position

After 2 successful positions am trying another stunt...

The ESM has been ratified by German courts leading to some optimism (around the world) though with conditions attached ... THe FED is expected to announce some easing trow.

However I have started building shorts again so far I have added 150 Nifty shorts November @ 5461 (avg). As of date portfolio is -6k.

Tomorrow I expect the market to move up 30 -40 points on Nifty when I will add one more lot.

I expect the FED to diappoint as announcing easing before US elections could be difficult politically . even if it does maybe the quantum will disappoint ...

Anyway once all the gas is dissipated markets are bound to come down. hope to see 5200 on the Nifty in September itself which should again make 30k for me.

A slight change of strategy

Came out of Nifty Sep short 350 with a positive of 24000.

Logic : Reducing spanish 10 year yields.

Also took 1 Long Nifty 50 and 1 Dow Long 25. Expectation was with ECB announcing bond buying there will be a short covering rally tomorrow.

So far seem vidicated as FTSE up 57 and Dow up 150 points with a whole day of trading left.

Hopefully will exit LOng with + 5k tomorrow.

Since Europe has delivered I guess FED will not ease now unless payroll results are very bad tomorrow (expectation is opposite). If FED doesnt ease markets will fall.

I guess will start shorting Nifty again after 5300 all the way to 5500. THis time will target Nov series and will try to increase average to around 5400.

Lets see.

 

Waiting on the sidelines

Since I last wrote the market has come down a bit.

The Nifty is at 5292 (noon 31/8).

It needs to come down to 5075 for me to make a nice sum of 80k rupees. I have time till 30 Sept.

Incidents lined up :

- Bernankes speech at Jack Hole. Am sure mkts will get disappointed given the huge expectations built up.
 - The Europe circus. I can see some rumblings upto 12 Sep when the German courts vote on ESM.

My strategy is simple :

Wait till 12 Sep. Uncertainty will lead to Risk off and selling at Indian bourses. Should get 5075 by then. Have already waited since 5460.

I have always traded the Indian Nifty as a hobby. Since I had a job I was never under pressure to deliver.

But now I hv lost my job and this will be one of the means to eke out a living. What has my track record been like :

- Started in 2007. Made INR 3.2 L (1 L =100,00)
 with the first trade. a naked call option on RNRL
- Subsequently have made small gains and major losses every year.
- Last year had a plus of 1.2 L trading just Nifty.
- This year am - 0.6 L.
- My current position is 300 short Nifty September series @ weighted avg of 5302. This is contrary to market wisdom as there is a flood of liquidity in the market and pundits are saying that the Nifty could go past 5500. My logic is as follows :
     - Indian economy is in doldrums.
    - India can grow only if interest rates get lowered, growth picks up, inflation comes down and oil comes down. Interest rates are not going to come down in the near future (thnks to RBI), growth GDP numbers expected this month later < 5%, inflation is sticky especially with poor monsoons and oil is also a spoiler especially with Iran on the brink of war.
  - The latest : The CAG report on Coal sector allocations. This will weigh on investor sentiments and add to public governance concerns.

- Internationally I think the markets (Dow, FTSE) have run ahead. It will take one tough statement from Merkel or the Luxembourg fellow for the house of cards to come crashing down.

- Indian markets open on 21st now. I have the whole of August and till 27 Sep to reach a target of around 5075 on the Nifty (that will give me a return of around 50k on the Nifty). With some luck I may get more (There is a black swan of a downgrading of Indian soveriegn which will cause mayhem).

Lets see ......